While everyone is focused on next week’s Arizona and Michigan primaries, and Super Tuesday, there’s still an important caucus state in between those two dates. Washington is holding their Republican caucuses on March 3rd (a Saturday) and Rick Santorum is beating Romney by double digits. According to the latest PPP poll (and the only poll I’ve seen from Washington), Rick Santorum leads with 38% of the vote, while Mitt Romney only gets 27%. Ron Paul is third at 15% and Newt Gingrich is fourth with 12%. Ron Paul always seems to over perform in caucus states, so this could get interesting. The groups fueling Santorum’s lead in Washington are the same ones he’s doing well with everywhere: he’s up 50-20 with Tea Partiers, 50-18 with Evangelicals, and 50-19 with voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ His state by state formula for success definitely seems to include leading with each of those groups by at least 25 points.
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PPP Washington state Republican Caucus poll: Rick Santorum 38 percent, Mitt Romney 27%, Ron Paul 15%, Newt Gingrich 12%
Looks like the PPP poll of the Michigan primary released yesterday was pretty accurate. Today’s Rasmussen poll of the Michigan Republican primary shows similar numbers for the leaders Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney. In the PPP poll, Santorum had a three point lead on Romney at 36% to 33%. In this Rasmussen poll , Santorum has a four point lead at 38% to 34%. Also like the PPP poll, Ron Paul comes in third, and Gingrich dead last. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan shows Santorum with 38% of the vote to Romney’s 34%. Well behind are Texas Congressman Ron Paul with 10% support and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at nine percent (9%).
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Rasmussen Michigan Republican primary poll: Rick Santorum 38%, Romney 34%, Ron Paul 10%, Newt Gingrich 9%
Like the Michigan PPP Republican primary poll , this one in Arizona is trying to flip flop. Mitt Romney who once had a big lead on Rick Santorum is now down to just a three point lead in the latest PPP poll . Newt Gingrich is third at 16% and Ron Paul is last at 9%. This primary is more important than Michigan for the winner, but it’s a winner take all primary for delegates, while Michigan is proportion. Romney’s up by good sized margins in Arizona with seniors (41-32), Hispanics (41-30), women (39-31), ‘somewhat conservative’ voters (43-29), and moderates (39-22). It’s kind of a given at this point that Romney will take moderates and Santorum ‘very conservative’ voters. The ‘somewhat conservative’ ones are really the swing voters of the GOP electorate and they’re leaning towards Romney in both Arizona and Michigan right now.
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PPP Arizona Republican Primary poll: Mitt Romney 36%, Rick Santorum 33%, Newt Gingrich 16%, Ron Paul 9%
Mittens Romney is coming back a little in the most recent PPP Michigan Republican primary poll. Last week, Santorum lead Romney by 15%. Now, according to the latest PPP Michigan Republican Primary poll, Santorum’s lead is just four points over Mittens. Ron Paul comes in third at 15% and Gingrich brings up the rear at 10%. Groups Santorum has double digit leads with include Protestants (up 47-30), union members (up 43-23), Evangelicals (up 51-24), Tea Partiers (up 55-20), ‘very conservative’ voters (up 54-23), and men (up 40-28). Romney is leading the field with women (38-34), seniors (42-34), moderates (35-24), ‘somewhat conservative’ voters (40-34), and Catholics (43-31).
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PPP Michigan Republican Primary poll: Rick Santorum 37%, Mitt Romney 33%, Ron Paul 15%, Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum is looking good in Oklahoma like he is Texas. Whatever Newt Gingrich was thinking to focus everything on Super Tuesday doesn’t seem to be paying off. Aside from Georgia’s primary, Gingrich doesn’t look to be in good shape for Super Tuesday. According to the latest Sooner Poll , Santorum is up 16 points on Mitt Romney and 21 points on Newt Gingrich. Like the Texas poll that showed Rick Santorum way out in front, Ron Paul comes in dead last in this poll too at just 8%. This same poll conducted months ago had Gingrich in the lead over Mittens, and Santorum being an after thought.
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Super Tuesday Oklahoma primary poll – Rick Santorum 39 percent, Romney 23%, Gingrich 18%, Ron Paul 8%